If you looked at the headlines this week, you would think Netflix already owns Warner Bros Discovery. Social media ran with it. News outlets rushed to declare it the biggest entertainment deal in years. Fans started imagining HBO shows wrapped inside the Netflix app. But here is the twist. None of this happens unless the FCC signs off, and based on everything we know, the approval process looks more like a brick wall than a red carpet.
The first sign came from inside the Trump administration. A senior official openly said Warner Bros should think very hard about their odds of clearing the FCC if they choose any buyer other than Paramount Skydance. That is an unusual level of honesty in a process that normally stays quiet until regulators make a ruling. When someone that close to the process says the deal is unlikely to survive review, that is not noise. That is a warning.
Hollywood has now joined the fight. A group of high level producers sent a letter to Congress urging them to block the merger. They argue that Netflix already holds an outsized amount of control over distribution and that adding Warner Bros would create an environment where independent producers struggle to survive. Theater owners quickly backed them, saying the deal could damage the theatrical marketplace and make it even harder for cinemas to stay competitive. When creators and exhibitors unite, Congress pays attention.
Members of Congress have also raised their own concerns. Representative Darrell Issa said Netflix already wields unequaled market power, and a merger with Warner Bros would raise serious antitrust questions. Senator Mike Lee echoed the warning, calling the idea alarming for competition. These statements matter because regulators often lean on congressional language when they need political cover for a denial.
Then there is David Ellison’s letter attacking Netflix’s bid. He did not hold back. He argued that the sale process favored Netflix unfairly and that allowing them to absorb Warner Bros would cause competitive harm. Whether his arguments are right or wrong, they hand the FCC a ready made list of justifications if they choose to block the merger.
The final piece is Brendan Carr at the FCC. Carr is Trump aligned and was the deciding vote that allowed the Paramount Skydance merger to move forward. The administration has already shown clear support for Paramount in this bidding war. It is difficult to imagine Carr would break from the political lane that elevated him, especially on a decision this large.
So while Netflix may have won the bidding portion, they are only now entering the part of the process that determines whether this deal becomes reality. Between political pressure, industry resistance, antitrust concerns, and the FCC’s own history, approval looks far from guaranteed.
This story is just beginning, and the next few months will reveal whether Netflix really walks away with Warner Bros or whether this merger dies in the one arena they cannot influence. The government.
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